This page ranks the accuracy of the preseason magazines' conference predictions for 2020, by comparing them to conference finish.
Lower scores indicate more accurate predictions; the lower the score, the closer the predictions were to the actual results. Magazines are sorted by total score for all conferences, with the best predictions (lowest total scores) at the top. The best prediction for each conference/division is highlighted in the list. For information on the scoring method, see the notes file.
Adjusted Score note: There are two adjustments made to scores due to the pandemic.
The first is an adjustment relating to the ACC playing without divisions, a decision that was made well after printed magazines were distributed. The average score for predicting the ACC as two divisions was 19.0. The average score for predicting the ACC as a single division was 44.1. For those who predicted the ACC as two divisions, I multiplied their accuracy score by 2.32 (44.1/19.0) so that the separate-division-prediction score was scaled to a similar range to those who predicted it as a division-less conference. For example, Phil Steele's accuracy score for all conferences other than the ACC was 123. His two-division prediction for the ACC scored 12 (Atlantic) + 4 (Coastal) = 16. His adjusted ACC score was 16 * 44.1 / 19.0 = 37.1. The sum of his adjusted ACC score (37.1) and his score for all other conferences (123) yields a total score of 160.1.
The second score adjustment is meant to handle predictors who did not predict one or more conferences. I scored each non-predicted conference as 1.1 times the average score of all predictors who did predict it -- this gave everyone who skipped predicting a conference a slightly-below-average score for that conference. There were three predictors who did not make predictions for the B1G, MAC, MWC, and Pac-12, which yielded a 68.0 adjustment. There were two predictors who skipped the MAC, MWC, and Pac-12, which yielded a 45.9 adjustment. And there was one predictor who skipped the MAC and MWC only, which yielded a 29.6 adjustment.
Rank | Magazine (yellow=web, blue=PDF) |
Sub- Total |
Adj Score |
Amer. Athl. |
ACC Atl. |
ACC Coa. |
ACC one div |
B1G East |
B1G West |
Big 12 | Conf USA East |
Conf USA West |
MAC East |
MAC West |
MWC Mtn |
MWC West |
PAC12 North |
PAC12 South |
SEC East |
SEC West |
Sun Belt East |
Sun Belt West |
1 | Phil Steele | 123 | 160.1 | 19 | 12 | 4 | - | 8 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 4 |
2 | The Sporting News / Street and Smith | 133 | 181.7 | 18 | 12 | 9 | - | 10 | 12 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
3 | SportsFormulator | 141 | 182.0 | 26 | - | - | 41 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
4 | Athlon | 137 | 183.4 | 17 | 14 | 6 | - | 10 | 12 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
5 | CFB Professor | 143 | 185.0 | 27 | 12 | 8 | 42 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 6 |
6 | McIllece Sports | 135 | 185.5 | 16 | - | - | 50½ | 9 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 6 |
7 | Lindy's | 136 | 187.1 | 22 | 16 | 6 | - | 12 | 12 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
8 | Versus Sports Simulator (formerly compughterratings.com) | 143 | 191.0 | 25 | - | - | 48 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
9 | CollegeFootballPoll.com | 155 | 196.0 | 24 | - | - | 41 | 8 | 16 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
Predictors omitting multiple conferences | ||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | Pick Six Previews | 98 | 160.1 | 19 | 12 | 2 | - | 10 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 8 | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 4 |
2 | Arena Fanatic | 64.5 | 178.9 | 17 | 14 | 6 | - | DNP | DNP | 14 | 7 | 8 | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 6 | 2 | 8 | 2½ |
3 | ESPN FPI | 84 | 181.9 | 18 | - | - | 52 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 10 | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
4 | CollegeFootballNews.com | 79 | 183.0 | 25 | - | - | 36 | DNP | DNP | 11 | 8 | 8 | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 7 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
5 | DRatings.com | 80 | 186.0 | 20 | - | - | 38 | DNP | DNP | 10 | 10 | 14 | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
6 | Autumn 11 | 101.5 | 196.0 | 17½ | - | - | 48 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 12 | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 6 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
Notes: | ||||||||||||||||||||||
- | Average score per conference | - | - | 20.7 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 44.1 | 9.8 | 10.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 |
- | Score for not predicting | - | - | 22.8 | 14.5 | 6.4 | 48.5 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 14.9 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 5.2 |